For safety calculations to be done in the field, we need to balance ease of calculation with actual minimum safe distances. We can always use naïve equations that create enormous safety ranges which, whilst safe in the sense that there is no risk from blast or fragmentation from the munition/device in question, are too burdensome a requirement to actually be employed. To exaggerate the point, a blanket 10 km safety distance for all non-nuclear explosions is safe and easy to calculate, but it is not the minimal safe distance. We want our safety distances to be in the centre of our Venn diagram – easy to calculate, safe, and small. The more resources we have to do the calculation, the less important ease of calculation is, but we always want it to be as safe and small as possible.
There are three factors that make a calculation “easy”. First, it should involve simple enough maths, and secondly not too much of it. The calculation can neither require advanced mathematical ability nor extensive arithmetic. The third and perhaps most important factor is that we need to be able to actually estimate the relevant parameters that go into the equation. It is of no use to have a simple, accurate equation that we cannot figure out the inputs for.
That being said, it is worth considering whether sometimes we can go for the gold solution of computer-aided modeling and provide EOD technicians the resources to use these models in the field. Whether it be through an equation, a table, or inputting some parameters into a computer, at some point the EOD technician must decide what the risk is for blast and fragmentation damage is at different distances. In the modern world, computer resources are often not too far away. Depending on the level of detail in the model, EOD teams could arrive at much more precise figures that accurately represent blast propagation through urban and natural structures as well as the fragmentation throw through this cover.
There are three levels I propose for the accuracy in a explosive safety distance calculation depending on the amount of parameters considered:
Level 1: The Naive Calculation
At Level 1 we only consider the TNT equivalent net explosive quantity (NEQ) and ignore the issues surrounding TNT equivalency (discussed here) for blast, ignore any level of detail of explosive properties when it comes to fragmentation, any consideration of the casing or type of frag, and terrain.
This calculation is easy in the sense that the maths is relatively straightforward; plug the NEQ into the equation and out comes a safety distance. But the lack of input parameters means some very important factors are forgotten about and hence to be safe, significant over-estimation is baked into the equations. For example, a calculation that treats a submunition and a hand grenade of similar NEQ as the same kind of object is clearly going to need to over-estimate the effects of the hand grenade. It is obvious that a munition designed to be employed at the range it can be thrown by a human must have a smaller hazard zone than one designed to be dropped from an aircraft.
When extreme expedience is required this level of calculation makes sense. The big benefit is that only one table is required: NEQ as an input and any number of safety distances as output, so in the context of an assault it may be acceptable to ignore other relevant factors. In this case, the NEQ is likely to be an estimate anyway, and the output safety distance is very rough. Where this is acceptable, a Level 1 calculation makes the most sense.
Other calculations may involve slightly different inputs. For example, the International Mine Action Standard has a calculation for safety distances based on “All Up Weight” which includes both explosive and casing/fuzing weights.1 This calculation is derived partly from Gurney calculations (mentioned below) and experimental results.
Level 2: The Detailed Calculation
The next level up involves considering the initial velocity, number and type of fragmentation pieces to calculate their spread. This Level 2 calculation is not a single calculation methodology but encompasses all the cases where multiple input parameters are used to understand the propagation of blast and frag.
Blast continues to be relatively straightforward if we assume flat terrain and an explosive quantity calculation of some kind is likely appropriate in open areas. As was mentioned in the TNT equivalency post, I have reservations about using a TNT equivalency factor to equate different explosives, but even an NEQ based calculation has merit.
Fragmentation is where it gets more detailed. This is the more important part too as fragmentation safety distances are typically larger than blast ranges – up to around 5000 kg NEQ according to the Australian eDEOP 101.2 For an effective fragmentation calculation, figure out what kind of fragmentation we will get when a munition explodes, we use the Gurney model to calculate the initial fragment velocity and combine it with a drag equation to understand how much drag the fragment will experience. Then the last step is the trickiest one: accounting for the actual trajectory.
The reason the last step is the hard one is that it is technically solving a differential equation for each piece of frag and needs to include the terrain – after all, a bomb that explodes on a hill will have frag that travels further than on flat ground or in a gully. What we can do to skirt around this challenge is to average the drag over the flight of the fragment to a single value and then calculate how far it will travel before it loses so much energy that it ceases to be hazardous. The eDEOP 101, in line with NATO and based on trials by the United Kingdom, has determined that the hazardous fragmentation distance is where there is less than 5% risk of a hazardous fragment (79 J kinetic energy or greater) hitting per 56 m\(^2\). That is 600 ft\(^2\) if you were wondering why it is not a round number.
I will go into more detail on how to actually do this calculation – or my preferred version at least – but the steps are as follows:
- Figure out what the fragments will be like, specifically weight, shape, and number.
- Figure out how fast they will go initially (using the Gurney model).
- Figure out how much drag the fragments will experience.
- Figure out at what distance they will fall below the threshold for risk.
Level 3: Computer-Aided Models
The final level is using a computer to aid in blast and fragmentation modelling. This level covers the whole range of options from a process similar to the one described for Level 2 where the computer is used to solve those equations, including the differential equation, to one where the terrain is modeled and more accurate blast and fragmentation calculations can be done. With regards to blast in particular, the idealised calculation can be dangerously inaccurate in complex environments, as can be seen in the figure below.

On some accounts, the reflection from the ground in a surface burst doubles the effective NEQ.4 Even in an environment with just a single vertical surface to reflect off, the blast wave can have significantly different survivability. The figures below show just how dramatically more the blast wave lethality is when beside a wall.

All of this is to emphasise that, other than simple devices like double the effective NEQ for ground burst or a simple factor for standing near a wall, blast propagation calculations need computer assistance to model their effects accurately. Once again, whether this level of detail is helpful depends entirely on the situation, however, with computational resources becoming ever more common, it is a worthwhile tool to include.
Complex blast propagation software is outside the scope of this post, but some simpler resources based on the Kingery and Bulmash methodology is available from GICHD on request as an Excel file, or another version is available from as a Python package from Github here. This model does not consider terrain however it does more accurately model blast waves than a simple polynomial.
For fragmentation, similar software exists which automates the Level 2 calculation and does not need to take the trajectory shortcut that we took of averaging out the drag coefficient. Terrain analysis can similarly be incorporated.
The level of detail that is gone into when doing calculations will depend on the available resources, the ability to estimate the input parameters, the time available and the required accuracy. Whilst the real world varies significantly from simple single-input formulas, a relatively safe and quick estimate of safety is often all that is required, so it is also worth asking whether a safety distance with less fudge factor is worthwhile.
- IMAS, “Technical Note 10.20/1: Estimation of Explosion Danger Areas“, 2013. ↩︎
- Australian Defence Force, “The Defence Explosive Ordnance Publication 101“, Defence Publishing Service, 2024. ↩︎
- M.A. Mayorga, “The pathology of primary blast overpressure injury” Toxicology, 1997. ↩︎
- P. Cooper, “Introduction to to the Technology of Explosives“, p 190, VCH Publishers, 1996. ↩︎
- Bowen et al, “Estimate of Man’s Tolerance to the Direct Effects of Air Blast“, Lovelace Foundation for Medical Education and Research, 1968. ↩︎